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“森林生态系统动态研究中风险与不确定性”研讨会通知
来源:编辑部    作者:李慧    发表时间:2014-10-08     浏览次数:次

 

一、会议介绍

Risk and uncertainty are intrinsically part of forest ecosystems affecting their economic andecological functioning. Risk has been defined as the expected loss (expressed in monetary terms) due to a particular hazard, e.g., insect outbreak and natural catastrophes, for a given area and reference period. Uncertainty refers especially to situations when the probabilities of the outcomes cannot be established given existing knowledge. Examples of uncertainties are climate change and policy shifts and their effects on forest ecosystem dynamics. There is a need to improve our ability to predict hazard event probabilities, to quantify risk, and to adapt if predictions fail.

 

Topics of interest for this workshop include but are not limited to the following:

• Risk analysis and modelling

• Uncertainty assessment and analysis

•Adaptive management

二、会议时间

本次会议时间为20141014日。详细日程安排请参见下方附录。

三、会议地点

本次研讨会将在澳门新葡亰APP下载学研大A0302开。

四、会议日程

本次会议共邀请9位国际学者和2位国内学者做主题发言。报告内容和具体日程安排请参见附录。欢迎各位从事相关研究的科研人员及研究生积极参加!

五、主办单位:澳门新葡亰APP下载期刊编辑部

六、联系方式

如果您对本次会议的相关内容存有任何疑问或问题,请您联系:李慧, 010-62337915, lihui@bjfu.edu.cn.

 

 

Risk and Uncertainty in Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Workshop Agenda

森林生态系统动态研究中风险与不确定性会议日程安排

2014-10-14

Risk and Uncertainty in Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Workshop

森林生态系统动态研究中风险与不确定性研讨会学研大厦A0302

8:30-9:00

OpeningCeremony,PresidentofBJFU,XiuhaiZhao&Klausv.Gadow

9:00-9:30

UnderstandingForestCarbonCyclesfromanLCAPerspective:AccountingforRiskandUncertainty,MoZhou,DavisCollege ofAgriculture,NaturalResourcesandDesign,West VirginiaUniversity,USA

9:30-10:00

Managingprojectrisksanduncertainties,

MikeMentis,ConsultantinBusines&Environment,SouthAftica

10:00-10:30

Coffeebreak(GroupPhotograph, infrontoftheXueyanBuilding)

10:30-11:00

Optimizingany-agedmanagementofborealforestwhentimberpricesandtreegrowtharestochastic

TimoPukkala,InstitutionUniversityofEasternFinland,Finland

11:00-11:30

NationalForestInventoryoftheUnitedStatesRevealsRelationshipbetweenClimateChangeandForestProductivity, JingjingLiang,DivisionofForestryandNaturalResources,WestVirginiaUniversity,USA

11:30-12:00

Modelingmortalityandrecruitmentwithstochasticprocesses

Tianjian Cao, Simulation Optimization Lab, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China

12:00-14:00

Lunch

14:00-14:30

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamicsapplying three contrasting management scenarios under climate change in Northern Germany

Matthias Albert, Northwest German Forest Research Institute, Gottingen, Germany

14:30-15:00

Rising relevance of continuous cover forestry

MozafarShirvani, FTB- Forest Technical Office, Austria

15:00-15:30

Adaptive Economic and Ecological Forest Management Under Risk

Joseph Buongiorno, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison Russell Labs, USA

15:30-16:00

Coffee break

16:00-16:30

Managing Wildfire Risk and Uncertainty; a Coupled Human and Natural Systems Approach, Dave Calkin, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USA

16:30-17:00

Density patterns in two natural forests: an analysis based on large observational field studies in China, Chunyu Zhang, Beijing Forestry University, China

17:00- 17:30

Tree Survival and Maximum Density of Planted Forests Observations from South African Spacing Studies, Klaus v. Gadow, Department of Forest and Wood Science, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa; University of Gottingen, Germany

18:00-20:00

Dinner

 



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